Best Actress in a Leading Role 2024

5.30.2024: Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers has performed well enough to keep Zendaya in the hunt – for now, at least. It may be foolish to put too much stock in Cannes, but Sean Baker’s Anora and Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez got huge boosts at the Croisette, respectively taking the Palme d’Or and Best Actress. Neon distributes Baker’s romantic comedy drama and will likely push Mikey Madison for year-end prizes. Netflix picked up the Audiard-helmed crime-comedy-musical hybrid starring Karla Sofía Gascón, whose Best Actress win at Cannes was shared with Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz, and Zoe Saldaña. If Gascón earns an Oscar nomination, she’ll become the first-ever trans person recognized by the motion-picture academy in an acting category. George Miller’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga earned strong ink from its out-of-competition debut at Cannes but not exuberant acclaim like 2015’s Mad Max: Fury Road; box office in the States hasn’t been the greatest, either. Cliffs Notes version: This might not be Anya Taylor-Joy‘s year. My next update should probably be right before the major fests – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto – but I’m sure I’ll have an update (or two) before then. Plus I have to create my other pages #oops.

Predicted Lineup

Saoirse Ronan, Blitz	Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux	Zendaya, Challengers	Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez	Mikey Madison, Anora
The four-time Oscar nominee leads Steve McQueen’s upcoming World War II drama. At one point, it seemed a win for Ronan was right around the corner…	Mother Monster leads a musical at last – no, A Star is Born doesn’t count. Her miss for House of Gucci was a huge surprise, so voters may rally behind her this time – especially if Warner Bros. campaigns the film as expected.	The two-time Emmy winner earned acclaim with the latest Luca Guadagnino drama. But is this an Oscar-winning role? Critics will need to pull through at year’s end.	It’s not always – or even necessarily – a direct pipeline from winning an acting prize at Cannes to being an awards-season contender – let alone landing an Oscar nomination. Still, the last time a woman ensemble took Best Actress at Cannes, one of them picked up an Oscar bid as well. Plus Gascón has the opportunity to make history as the first trans person to receive an acting nomination.	The Palme d’Or win for Sean Baker’s latest puts it on the map. That bodes well for Madison’s performance… right?

Just Behind…

Demi Moore, The Substance	Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl	Angelina Jolie, Maria	Mia Goth, MaXXXine	June Squibb, Thelma
Sure, MUBI as a distributor hardly inspires confidence, but the reviews out of Cannes suggest that a campaign for this horror flick would be worthwhile. A career nomination for Moore would be awesome, wouldn’t it?	Hear me out: Isn’t it possible that this performance – in a film about a showgirl preparing for what her life will be like after the glitter fades – gains some traction?	OK, I feel a little foolish keeping Jolie’s portrayal of opera legend Maria Callas out of my top five, considering the Pablo Larraín of it all. But we could be in for an incredibly stacked Best Actress race.	She gained more traction for Pearl than one might expect – especially for a slasher that wasn’t getting awards attention as a whole. If this ’80s-set conclusion to that trilogy impresses the critics and performs well at the box office (with at least the latter being suggested by its July 5 release date), maybe this is Goth’s “welcome to the club” moment.	A comedy about an elderly woman taking on the hacker who scammed her may not seem like something on the Oscar radar. But reviews for this Squibb starrer are through the roof – especially for a film that could have easily been in Book Club or 80 for Brady territory. If marketing ramps up a little, I think this can be something of a sleeper hit too. The big problem, even sight unseen: Distributor Magnolia, unless I’m missing something, has never scored an acting nod before.

Hmmmm…

Amy Adams, Nightbitch	Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness	Anya Taylor-Joy, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga	Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary	Michaela Coel, Mother Mary
The six-time Oscar nominee was on a hot streak for a minute. And then she wasn’t. A plot synopsis for this dark comedy hardly suggests a movie that would win over the motion-picture academy, but with Marielle Heller at the helm, Adams might return to voters’ good graces.	Unsure how the anthological nature of the film will affects its chances – especially in acting categories – but don’t could the two-time Best Actress out just yet. Also, will Stone go Supporting?	With her star having been on the rise for a minute, Taylor-Joy’s sure to land an Oscar nomination at some point. But is Furiosa the film/role to do it? While this Fury Road prequel premiered to raves at Cannes, the response wasn’t as thunderous that of its 2015 predecessor, and the box office has been less promising, as Deadline Hollywood has all but shouted from the rooftops. Warner Bros. also has the already-proven Dune: Part Two and possibly Joker: Folie à Deux to push; Taylor-Joy first appearing about halfway into the film doesn’t help, either.	Hathaway’s turn as a musician who becomes entangled with August Michaela Coel’s fashion designer in David Lowery’s musical drama sounds like (a certain faction of) Film Twitter’s dream come true. Will it live up to those lofty expectations? And if it does, will awards season embrace it?	If Mother Mary becomes A ThingTM, will Coel be on the campaign trail as well as or (plot twist) instead of Hathaway?

Because Who Knows?

Nicole Kidman, Babygirl	Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine	Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Tuesday	Julianne Nicholson, Janet Planet	Nathalie Emmanuel, Megalopolis
Everyone’s favorite movie-theater spokeswoman leads this A24-distributed erotic thriller alongside Harris Dickinson. On paper, this might not be Oscar’s cup of tea, but this could be A24’s Best Actress push if other films in their arsenal (Civil War, MaXXXine, The Smashing Machine) fail to provide an indescribable feeling when the lights begin to dim. And why bet against Kidman? She makes movies better.	This movie sounds like my personal hell, but Blunt just earned her first nomination this past year, and this sports drama could be a late-breaking contender for A24.	This fantasy drama looks a bit mawkish, but maybe the sentimentality is well-earned?	The raves are there, and Nicholson feels like someone who just needs That RoleTM to be a contender. But is this it?	So, Francis Ford Coppola’s ages-in-the-making epic that hardly won over Cannes and is struggling to find distribution… yeah, I’m doubting this will win over Oscar voters at large. Still, don’t be surprised if the directors’ branch rallies to get the film into Director and maybe even Picture. Will Emmanuel come along for the ride?

Other Potential Contenders

• Ilana Glazer, Babes
• Michele Buteau, Babes
• Lily Gladstone, Fancy Dance
• Kirsten Dunst, Civil War
• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
• Ariana Grande, Wicked
• Lucy Liu, Presence
• Khani Kusruit, All We Imagine as Light
• Divya Prabha, All We Imagine as Light
• Tao Zhao, Caught by the Tides
• Crista Alfaiate, Grand Tour